Will it snow in London this winter? What the record-early polar vortex collapse means

Will it snow in London this winter? Forecasters are watching what could be the earliest polar vortex collapse on record, which can raise the chance of cold snaps and snow in Europe later in the season. But the Met Office says it is far too early to promise snow for London, and the next few weeks look mild and wet.

What is the polar vortex?

The polar vortex is a ring of strong winds high above the Arctic, between 10 and 50km up. When it is strong, it keeps the coldest air locked over the North Pole. When it weakens or breaks down, in what scientists call a sudden stratospheric warming, the jet stream can buckle and let Arctic air spill south into Europe and North America.

That is what happened before the Beast from the East in 2018, which brought heavy snow to London. But not every vortex collapse leads to cold weather in the UK.

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Why is everyone talking about it now?

Forecast models suggest a major disruption in early November, which would be the earliest on record. MIT scientist Dr Judah Cohen said it would almost certainly be the largest and earliest polar vortex disruption on record, but stressed that the timing, strength and effects on the weather are still highly uncertain.

What does the Met Office say?

The Met Office says neither El Niño nor changes in the polar vortex give a precise forecast for the UK on their own. This year’s strong El Niño tends to make late autumn and early winter wetter, stormier and milder, while a weaker polar vortex could raise the chance of colder spells later in winter. It has also warned against headlines promising snow at specific places.

So will London get snow?

It is possible but not likely soon. London rarely gets lying snow before December, and the current outlook is for unsettled, fairly mild weather. If the vortex collapse does reach the surface, the best chance of a cold snap would be from late November into December. We will update this page when the forecast becomes clearer.

Sources: Met Office, Yahoo Weather, The Guardian, Bloomberg. Photo: Sven Hansche / Shutterstock.

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