Will interest rates go up this week? Bank of England set to raise rates to 4%

3rd November 2026

The Bank of England is widely expected to raise interest rates on Thursday, for the first time since August 2023. Bank Rate is currently 3.75%, and economists expect it to rise to 4% as inflation climbs again.

📅 Decision: Thursday 5 November, 12pm
📊 Bank Rate now: 3.75%
📈 Expected: rise to 4%, the first hike in more than three years
🔥 Inflation (CPI): 3.5% in September, an 11-month high

Will interest rates go up on Thursday?

Most economists think so. A Reuters poll found most expect the Monetary Policy Committee to vote 7-2 for a quarter-point rise to 4%. In September the committee voted 6-3 to hold rates.

Suren Thiru, chief economist at the ICAEW, said a rise to 4% “looks all but certain”. Stefan Koopman of Rabobank said the Bank’s “hands are increasingly being forced, whether they like it or not”.

Why would the Bank put rates up?

Inflation is heading the wrong way. Prices rose 3.5% in the year to September, up from 3.1% in August and above the 3.0% the Bank had forecast. In September the Bank warned that inflation could go above 4% early next year.

Oil is above $100 a barrel, and the energy price cap went up 3.6% for a typical household in October, with forecasts pointing to a much bigger rise in January. Ellie Henderson of Investec said: “We imagine that many committee members’ patience with the recent rise in inflation has worn thin.”

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What would a rate rise mean for you?

If you have…	What could happen
A tracker or variable mortgage	Monthly payments would go up soon after a rise
A fixed-rate mortgage	No change until your deal ends, but new fixed deals may cost more
Savings	Banks may offer better interest rates
Loans and credit cards	Borrowing could get more expensive

Markets are pricing in three or four more rises during 2027, which would take Bank Rate to between 4.75% and 5%. So if you are close to the end of a fixed deal, it may be worth speaking to a broker now.

When is the announcement?

The Bank of England will announce its decision at 12pm on Thursday 5 November, alongside the minutes of the meeting and its latest Monetary Policy Report.

Sources: IG, Reuters via Global Banking & Finance, The British Eye. This is general information, not financial advice. Photo: Robert Lamb / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 2.0.