Will it snow in the UK? What the early polar vortex shake-up means for London this winter

12th November 2026

Updated 12 Nov 2026, 18:42 · First published 12 Nov 2026

Will it snow in the UK this winter? The polar vortex, the ring of strong winds high above the Arctic that normally keeps freezing air locked near the North Pole, is being disrupted unusually early. Forecasters say that raises the chance of a cold snap later this autumn, but it does not guarantee snow in London.

What is happening to the polar vortex?

The stratosphere above the North Pole is warming and the vortex’s westerly winds are weakening. The Met Office calls the signs of a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) “exceptional” for this early in the season.

If those winds reverse completely, the event counts as a major SSW. Met Office forecaster Marco Petagna has said that would potentially be the earliest ever recorded.

Does that mean snow is coming?

Not necessarily. A disrupted polar vortex can send cold air spilling south towards the UK, but the effect usually takes two to six weeks to work down to the weather we feel at ground level.

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“It doesn’t always happen, it just increases the chance of it occurring,” Petagna said. A major warming last November did not bring much cold weather to the UK.

The Met Office has also said the outcome is “far from guaranteed”. There is generally less cold air around the Northern Hemisphere this early in the season, which adds to the uncertainty.

Polar vortex and UK snow: what we know

WhatSudden stratospheric warming developing over the Arctic

How unusual“Exceptional” this early, says the Met Office

Time lagEffects can take 2 to 6 weeks to reach the UK

Most likely windowLater in November and into December

Snow guaranteed?No – it only raises the chance of colder weather

Extra factorA record-strength El Niño in the Pacific

What kind of cold could the UK get?

It depends where high pressure sets up. High pressure over the UK would bring quiet, dry weather with frost and fog.

If it sits further north, bitter easterly winds become possible: the set-up that brought the “Beast from the East” in 2018. High pressure out to the west makes northerly winds and wintry showers more likely.

Why El Niño matters

The Pacific is in the grip of an exceptional El Niño, with sea temperatures in a key monitoring region at record levels. Met Office meteorologist Aidan McGivern explained that El Niño “is basically enhancing the waves” in the lower atmosphere, which can push up into the stratosphere and knock the vortex off balance.

That is why El Niño winters tend to have a higher chance of sudden stratospheric warmings.

Will it snow in London?

London is usually one of the last places in the UK to see settling snow, thanks to the city’s own heat. For now, there is no forecast of snow for the capital. The polar vortex simply tilts the odds towards a colder spell in the weeks ahead.

Check the latest Met Office forecast before travelling. We’ll update this page if warnings are issued.