Polar vortex: will it snow in the UK this November? What the Met Office says

4th November 2026

Updated 4 Nov 2026, 17:16 · First published 4 Nov 2026

A frosty, misty morning in an English field — Photo: John Knight / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY 2.0)

The polar vortex is weakening weeks earlier than expected, and it could bring a colder spell to the UK by the middle of November. But don’t dig out the sledge just yet: the latest Met Office forecast does not show snow for most of us in the coming days.

What is the polar vortex?

The polar vortex is a band of strong, cold winds circling high above the Arctic. When it is strong, it keeps freezing air locked up near the North Pole. When it weakens or breaks down, that cold air can spill south towards the UK and Europe, sometimes weeks later.

Experts had expected the vortex to be disrupted in January, but NASA data shows its winds dropping sharply since the end of October, from around 27mph on 31 October to around 9mph on 3 November.

UK weather: what to expect
🌡️ 6 to 15 November (Met Office): temperatures a little below average at first, then back to near or slightly above average
☁️ High pressure at first, with lots of cloud, a little drizzle, breezy in the south and fog patches in the north
🌧️ Rain later in the southwest and northwest, but how far it spreads is uncertain
❄️ Frost likely on clear nights, with temperatures around -2°C in parts of Scotland by 9 November
🌨️ No widespread snow shown in the forecast so far

Will it snow in London?

Not in the current forecast. Forecast maps suggest colder air could reach southern England by mid-November, which means frosty mornings and a chill in the air, but the Met Office is not predicting snow for the capital at the moment.

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A weakened polar vortex does not always mean snow for the UK. Its effects can take a few weeks to show and depend on how the cold air moves. We’ll update this page if the forecast changes.

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Sources: Met Office long-range forecast (6 to 15 November), NASA polar vortex data via the Mirror / AOL.